by Geoff Vasil
The first task in the American and Israeli war against Iran is to open the Strait of Hormuz. This isn’t an impossible military task. It simply entails a cold, hard slog up the coast, reducing by attrition Iranian radar, speedboat, drone and missile sites.
For Donald Trump to lose the military engagement in Iran would be an American tragedy. Never mind he forgot to sell the war to the American public and Congress. Maybe he thought a 4-day war’s results would speak for themselves. I might be misremembering, but George Herbert Walker Bush spent about 6 months selling his First Gulf War and about 4 months actually fighting it, to a semblance of victory. My flawed memory doesn’t recall any war at all America engaged in which didn’t include a prequel to war, a long build-up and more importantly an argument or explanation of why it was in America’s national interest. The secret bombing of Cambodia and Laos might be an exception, but “Ho Chi Minh Road” was kind of self-explanatory in the end. Did fourth American president Madison make the case against Canadian terrorism and British imperialism in the War of 1812? I don’t know, I wasn’t born yet, but I kind of think he did make that case to the American people in that weirdest of all American wars. America’s third president Thomas Jefferson definitely did make the case in the two Barbary Pirate Wars before that..
Donald Trump as the most significant American president since George Washington can’t afford to lose. Of course he never wanted to be a “wartime president” and he probably isn’t cut by nature or nurture to be a great military leader. Maybe there was some hubris involved in the technically good military kidnapping of the Venezuelan president a month before; if we can do that, we can do anything.
If Trump doesn’t open the Strait, the world will always remember him as a weak commander-in-chief and ultimately a failure.
That said, he’s done a great deal more than previous presidents against the threat to world peace represented by the Iranian Revolution. Reagan caved when the Israel Republic wasn’t even a real thing yet. Reagan/Bush made secret deals, shipped arms and supported the Islamic Republic much as Kissinger initially supported the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia before really switching sides to the People’s Republic of China instead of supporting nominal Communists but actually genocidal maniacs in Cambodia.
Trump seems to have been convinced there can be no military victory in Hormuz, that it’s some sort of impossible task. Is this the same thing that happened in his first term when he withdrew troops from Syria but the US military secretly countermanded his direct orders, claiming a withdrawal which never happened? Is the US military, the Department of Defense, lying to president Trump that no military victory is possible at Hormuz? Former UK and US generals and military leaders know this isn’t true. It’s a long slog, but it’s doable. And it has to be done to free the entire world from Iranian tyranny.
The second task of the war is to degrade what’s left of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Their command-and-control structure is obviously in ruins and they’re basically staging campfire demonstrations on what’s left of Iranian state media claiming they’re still in control of the country. Their hold on power is tenuous at best, and that’s being very kind to the actual situation. In reality the Iranian public has decided their days are numbered, women in Tehran are no longer wearing the veil and the economic situation is so dire the IIRGC can’t pay its people at this point, even in Iranian funny money.
Thinking outside the box, back during what American vice-president Vance called the 12-day war, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked on possible regime change in Tehran, “They can turn off the internet, but we can turn it back on.” It’s time to turn the internet back on in Iran, if that’s really a possibility. Outside the Islamo-fascist regime normal people make their incomes by selling weird and random stuff on the internet. In fact the US and Israel need to start introducing alternative income streams to the Iranian people outside the Government, which is bankrupt at this point. Besides cash, the US and Israel can airdrop food and goods into disloyal zones, shades of the Berlin airlift.
Economic Blockade
Cutting off Iranian imports and exports via the Gulf is good, but Pakistan needs to stop transport as well. Afghanistan and Turkmenistan to Iran’s east as not natural allies and can be cajoled into a wider blockade. There’s probably no chance Russia and Kazakhstan can be cut off in the Caspian, but there are other inputs which can and should be cut to Iran.
Ethnic Minorities
The natural ally of the US and Israel would be the Sunni Arabs in Khuzestan rather than the Kurds in the north, but both are good options to pursue even now, after Trump accused the Kurds of stealing weapons shipments. The other thing is that while Iran is a vast country, it has a significant area of its territory which is uninhabited, in the east, towards Merv. Why not set up a state-within-a-state there supplied by American airpower to draw off Iran’s intellectual and metropolitan capital? Are you afraid of the Mullahs? Move east, young man or woman. We’ll provide the water and food.
With that population drain in mind, it makes sense for the US to live up to their stereotype and reinstall the Shah in the person of his grandson Reza. Create an alternative center of power. Guess which side 90% of Iranians will chose?
Press the Propaganda Angle
Iran isn’t a normal country. Even Russia and China are afraid of a nuclear Iran. Because the people traditionally in charge since 1979 are religious fanatics who want to impose their religion and ideology on the entire world.
When Israel and the US attacked Iran at the end of February, Iran attacked its neighbors. It’s as if the US attacked Cuba, and Cuba responded by attacking Belize and Costa Rica. This isn’t a normal military response. Attacking shipping in Hormuz is not normal. It’s not “tit-for-tat,” it’s psychopathic. The Persian Gulf states Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the Emirates and Oman sought a path towards peace with Iran despite US and Israeli military hostilities, but Iran attacked them. They then claimed they hadn’t attacked them. Who is attacking whom exactly? Is it normal for Iran to claim sovereignty in southern Beirut? Why is that? When did Iran have real sovereignty in Lebanon?
When Israel in their excellent clandestine operation destroyed hundreds of Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon in the pager attack, Iran and Hezbollah claimed this was some sort of genocide. Genocide of a terrorist faction. Amazing chutzpah. Off the charts. Hezbollah is now a national identity. Their identity is summed up in one phrase, “Death to Israel.”
How to Win
Trump needs to open Hormuz militarily and stop engaging in very fake negotiations with someone inside the Iranian regime. He needs to get the Gulf states side. He needs to sell the war to the American people explaining why it is in the US’ vital national interest. He needs to come back to the idea of freeing the Iranian people from their despotic regime. Even if Trump doesn’t win this war, it will continue, and it will continue into future American administrations, so if he doesn’t provide a happy ending, someone else will have to down the road.
The thoughts and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author.