by Geoff Vasil

The aftermath of what the US administration is calling the 12-Day War (referring to the Six-Day War in 1967 when Moshe Dayan took the whole of the Sinai Peninsula from Egypt) is somewhat contentious.

Jonhny-come-lately the United States joined the fray but then attempted to take over the strategic ciurse of the conflict. As in World War I and World War II, when first the European powers then the Soviet Union had expended countless troops to win the war, the United States joined late, then allowed themselves to declare peace.

In the case of the latest 12-Day War, US president Trump declared mission accomplished, and demanded the state of Israel cease hostilities.

The US contribution was significant–using depleted uranium ground-penetrating ordinance to take out Iran’s Fordow and Natanz underground nuclear facilities–but American president Trump’s assertion this had destroyed Iran’s potential as a nuclear-weapons state wasn’t proven.

The crux of the matter is whether the International Atomic Energy Agency’s reporeted 400 kilograms of enrhiched uranium was actually dispersed and taken out of commission.

These 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium isotope 235 might have been in gasous form, as uranium hexafluorine. In that case it is likely the centrifuges made of glass contiuning enrichment to 9-% were destroyed and the gas was dispersed. If these 400 kilograms were metallic uranium, and the bomb cores were removed before US bombing, nothing of great value was achieved.

The exact amount of uranium needed to produce a warhead is classified information. People in the know say a large sack of potatoes is about the same mass as needed to achieve criticality. A small bag of potatoes is enough if you’re using plutonium, in which Iran was also dabbling.

Given that pseudo-math, Iran had enough uranium to build 10 nuclear warheads out of uranium. Perhaps 12 if you tend towards a liberal estimate of potato sacks. And 60% enrichment of uranium isotope 235 is already weapons-grade. The bombs dropped over Nagasaki and Hiroshima were 60%.

Iran refuses to deal with its complete defeat at the hands of Israel. According to Iranian media, Iran bombed Israel into submission leading to Trump’s demand for a cease-fire. There is an interesting rift between the president and the supreme leader over this. The first admits there was extensive damage, while the second says no, and has issued fatwas or fatawas for the murder of Trump and Netanyahu and their supporters over the last several days.

Fatwas from the Ayatollah have only worked once, and after significant delay. Ayatollah Khomeini, the first supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, issued a fatwa against Iranian-British novelist Salman Rushdie way back when in 1988 or so, around the time of the downing of the Iranian passenger jet in the Persian Gulf by US forces patrolling the Gulf to maintain wolrd oil supplies. It took more tha 20 years for some fanatic to stab Rushdie in the eye. In the meantime he was in official hiding. Shiite Muslim don’t all follow the Iranian leader either. Shia is widespread from North Africa to Bangladesh, but not necessarily Iranian Islamic Republic Shia.

The current president and supreme leader of Iran are obviously speaking from a position of weakness and defeat. The foreign minister hase given the nix to Trump’s call for negotiation, given that the last negotiations were fairly obviously a ruse to lull Iran into complacency before the Israeli and American attack.

Naysayers within Trump’s base, the American First continguent opposed to foreign entanglements in general and definitely opposed to the neo-cons’ “forever wars” from the George W. Bush era, might take solace in Trump’s decision to end the war early, at 12 days. But the war isn’t over. Iran has pledged to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty regime, to continue to enrich whatever uranium they still have and to build a nuclear weapon as a deterrent.

All sides have rejected firther negotiations, That means there will be a continuation of strikes again Isran no matter what. On a brighter note, the United States’ entry on the side of the state of Israel demonstrates the closest defense alliance between any two independent nations since World War II. The rest of the world might reel from the rapid succession of events in the war with Iran, but Iran finds itself, after 46 years of exporting terrorism and calling for the death opf the West, without any real allies.

The Iranian foreign minister has continued to decry, shades of Ethiopia in the League of Nations, that it hasn’t aggressed against anyone and is an innocent victim here. Unfortunately for Iran everyone knows they attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, from Gaza, and then continued the attack with two other armies they control from Lebanon and North Yemen. No one trusts, no one likes and no one believes the half-century of lies from Teheran, the head of the snake dedicated to the death of Israel and to the death of the West overall. There is no national security without the sense of security from one’s neighbors. These are mutually depdendant [positions. If I don’t feel safe, you will not feel safe from me.

Iran has no bargaining position left. They ca either accept UN or more likely US inspectors will constantly monitor their nuclear activity, or they can simply capituralte to the will of the Iranian people and step down gracefully. They have no cards to play, as Trump told another figure in the White House. There are no good options left for the theocrats in Iran.

The opinions expressed here are purely those of the author and do not represnt those of the Lithuanian Jewish Community, any other organization or any other person.