by Geoff Vasil
The US is sending two contingents of US Marines numbering about 5,000 soldiers and from 1,000 to 3,000 troops from the US Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Persian Gulf, to arrive sometime in the next week or so. The marines and the paratroopers are specially trained for taking and holding beachheads and islands, and higher ground positions in the case of the paratroopers.
There’s little or no doubt what their mission will be: open the Strait of Hormuz.
So far no one has challenged Iran at the Strait. Raising on a busted flush yet again, the Islamic Republic is trying to spin their image as global boogey-man into strategic control of the chokehold and over the world economy. Iran is seeking to put the blame on Donald Trump for their attacks on commercial shipping. While it’s true that the world’s leading exporter of terrorism could have been expected to act badly and attack neutral shipping, blaming Trump is a media PR ploy aimed at putting public pressure on Trump to end hostilities. Trump didn’t set fire to the 20 or so ships attacked so far.
Why is Iran trying so hard to win this PR battle? Because it has no other options available. It has launched its missiles and drones, probably almost everything held back in reserve. There is no deal to be made with the US and Israel, only unconditional surrender.
Revolutionary Guard and Iranian military are entrenched along the Persian Gulf coast, with missiles, drones and weaponized speedboats ready to strike, but so far they haven’t been challenged and without command-and-control and support from the interior, it’s a target-rich environment for the US and Israel to pick off individual cells and cave installations like flies. Almost all of Iran’s oil resources are along the Persian Gulf and good portions of the population aren’t Persian there, and have no allegiance to Tehran. Amphibious marines can island-hop from Hormuz to Basra while airborne take the heights overlooking the coast. Air support can then escort US destroyers into the Gulf and pick off nests of resistance. Mines laid by Iran would mean Iranian shipping to India and China stops, and US and allied forces could sit outside the Strait interdicting vessels bound for China and India. In other words, the US could close down Hormuz and probably more effectively than Iran is attempting. Furthermore, Israel and the USA have real asymmetrical options of their own, including secret weapons and intelligence mapping techniques Iran can’t match.
The Iranian forces around Hormuz don’t have a chance against highly-trained US combat troops and the full might of US military forces and intelligence. Not only will Iran lose control of the Strait, it will probably lose it forever and the territory will become that of a neighboring Gulf state, Oman, Saudi or UAE.
The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author.