by Geoff Vasil

Even if president Trump declares mission accomplished, as many Americans are urging, the was with Iran won’t end. The new hidden imam ayatollah has issued official if non-credible instructions to keep the Hormuz chokehold closed in order to strangle world oil supply. Raising on a busted flush, Iran’s terrorist regime thinks by dictating to its neighbors and attacking them it can hold onto power until US public opinion comes to their rescue.

The problem with that is the neighbors and the world can’t afford to play that game. France seems to be the only country willing to say so out loud, sending naval vessels whose ultimate goal seems to be the Persian Gulf. The new doctrines of drone warfare have scared off the world’s largest navy from conducting safe-conduct escorts as they did back in the 1980s in response to threats from the same regime.

The only sane response to Iran’s gambit is to fight it out along the Iranian coast, from Basra to Hormuz, targeting drones and missile launchers. The neighboring Gulft states have never been fans of the Islamic Republic, but now almost the entire world has an interest in protecting the oil supply militarily.

Iran might have calculated correctly the American lack of apetite for war, even as Iranian “sleeper cells” carry out terrorist attacks on American soil, but they’ve miscalculated world opinion which will come back to bite them, and even bite off pieces of Iranian territory. Two weeks ago Pakistan officially declared war on Afghanistan. Last week the Ukraine and the Russian Federation took a dip in Persian Gulf waters seeking to aid one side and the other with drone technology and technique. There are now five nuclear powers involved or potentially involved in the Iranian War: France, Israel, USA, Russia, Pakistan. Only Russia and to a limited extent Israel can afford to let the Iranians hold global oil supply hostage. Given the hostility of all of Iran’s neighbors including Pakistan and Afghanistan, there’s every reason to expect those neighbors to grab pieces of Iranian territory. Unpredictable Turkmenistan and sparsely-populated Afghanistan might be the only exceptions. That leaves a rump Islamic Republic fighting from bunkers in Tehran with no command and control structure to communicate with field commanders, as Tehran remains the focus of Israeli and American bombing sorties.

A prison break, or “regime change,” by ethnic Persians can’t happen unless they get their hands on weapons.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author.