by Geoff Vasil
The next phase of hostilities in Iran includes degrading missile launch pads and freeing up the Persian Gulf for shipping. Iran has a limited number of longer-range missiles and is seeking to use them before they’re destroyed. That means there will be a tapering off in attacks on Israel within two or three days but probably an increase in attacks on nearer neighbors with shorter-range rockets. The attacks so far seem to be a dead-man’s-switch response to the assassination of the ayatollah, a policy to enflame the region, almost literally running around like a chicken with its head cut off. Saudi Arabia could strike back; Kuwait has already demonstrated their readiness to fight, and Qatar reported shooting down Iranian “aircraft,” presumably fighter jets rather than drones.
The Iranian Persian Gulf coast has been undergoing fortification for decades according to various sources. Freeing shipping lanes from attack could mean targeting numerous launch pads and artillery all along that coast as well as degrading the Iranian Navy and the infamous “Iranian gun boats.”
If the military and security command structure continues to be destroyed, power vacua will probably arise in different areas of the country. Only about 50% of the population are native Persian (Farsi) speakers with numerous ethnic groups distributed throughout. The Kurds are probably the largest dissatisfied group, but the Arabic-speaking province Khuzestan adjacent to Kuwait and Iraq is supposed to be a hotbed of discontent. Even if the Islamic Republic can hang on in the Tehran basin, the outer provinces could fall to dissidents.
For reasons unknown, president Trump didn’t read UK PM Keir Starmer in on the plan. Starmer responded by refusing to take part, but relented on allowing American forces to launch from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean the next day. Starmer was forced to take defensive action to protect Britain’s territorial exclaves on Cyprus but saved face with his Labour colleagues by question the legality under international law of the US-Israeli pre-emptive strike on Iran. Clinton joined Blair in bombing rump Yugoslavia based on a lot less than 30,000 protestors murdered, citing the violation of the human rights of Kosovar jihadists as sufficient justification to bomb Serbia for months. In normal superpower fashion, the USA under Trump hasn’t been extremely busy trying to justify the war, they’re more interested in winning.
Supporters of Reza Pahlavi say he is the only opposition figure able to united the factions in Iran now, but if he wants to restore the Peacock Throne (actually the Naderi Throne) he probably has to convince Iranians with a longer memory the restoration won’t include the SAVAK secret police. The Shah murdered a similar number of Iranian protestors near the end of his reign. The ayatollah Khomeini was able to take over because of the failings of the last Shah. Neither regime served the umma or the res publica.
What seems more likely–current US policy makers known regime change comes only from within–is an effort to disarm the Revolutionary Guard and their militia while arming opposition groups.
Mine, mine, tekl ophirsin.
The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author.