by Geoff Vasil
The next phase of hostilities in Iran includes degrading missile launch pads and freeing up the Persian Gulf for shipping. Iran has a limited number of longer-range missiles and is seeking to use them before they’re destroyed. That means there will be a tapering off in attacks on Israel within two or three days but probably an increase in attacks on nearer neighbors with shorter-range rockets. The attacks so far seem to be a dead-man’s-switch response to the assassination of the ayatollah, a policy to enflame the region, almost literally running around like a chicken with its head cut off. Saudi Arabia could strike back; Kuwait has already demonstrated their readiness to fight, and Qatar reported shooting down Iranian “aircraft,” presumably fighter jets rather than drones.
The Iranian Persian Gulf coast has been undergoing fortification for decades according to various sources. Freeing shipping lanes from attack could mean targeting numerous launch pads and artillery all along that coast as well as degrading the Iranian Navy and the infamous “Iranian gun boats.”
If the military and security command structure continues to be destroyed, power vacua will probably arise in different areas of the country. Only about 50% of the population are native Persian (Farsi) speakers with numerous ethnic groups distributed throughout. The Kurds are probably the largest dissatisfied group, but the Arabic-speaking province Khuzestan adjacent to Kuwait and Iraq is supposed to be a hotbed of discontent. Even if the Islamic Republic can hang on in the Tehran basin, the outer provinces could fall to dissidents.
